Dr Daniel Cash

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Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

The G20’s Capital Adequacy Framework review asked multilateral development banks to publish clearer statistics on risk. The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) has responded, releasing disaggregated default and recovery data in late 2024 and making it available on Bloomberg terminals. An AI layer, reportedly being developed with

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

Global sovereign debt burdens have reached unprecedented levels, with external debt of low- and middle-income countries rising to a record $8.8 trillion in 2023. This escalation has compressed fiscal space across developing countries, restricted investment in healthcare and education, undermined progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, and created

The Vanishing AAA: How Ratings Have Redefined ‘Safe’ Debt

The Vanishing AAA: How Ratings Have Redefined ‘Safe’ Debt

In 1984, when the FTSE World Government Bond Index launched, it captured something close to perfection. Nearly every government bond in the index carried a triple-A rating. The world’s safest assets, neatly packaged and weighted, offering investors a map of pristine sovereign credit. Today, that map tells a

The Currency of Credit: Sovereign Ratings and the Politics of Dollar Dependence

The Currency of Credit: Sovereign Ratings and the Politics of Dollar Dependence

The contemporary debate on sovereign borrowing is often framed in terms of ‘de-dollarisation’, as reported this week in the Financial Times (‘Developing Countries Swap Out of Dollar Debt to Cut Borrowing Costs’). The more immediate reality is pragmatic. Kenya has experimented with Renminbi issuance, Panama with Swiss francs, Hungary

From Fiduciary Duty to Duopoly: Making Sense of ESG Ratings in 2025

From Fiduciary Duty to Duopoly: Making Sense of ESG Ratings in 2025

The Fraser Institute’s new report warns that ESG ratings are ‘a lawsuit waiting to happen’. The phrase makes for a striking headline, tapping into wider anxieties about sustainability investing. Yet this framing potentially misrepresents both the legal foundation and the actual function of ESG ratings in finance today. The

Who Must Lose for Debt to Work?

Who Must Lose for Debt to Work?

The Price of Freedom In 1825, Haiti gained international recognition of its independence from France (and was recognised by France as having done so). The price was 150 million francs, paid as “compensation” to former slaveholders for the people they had enslaved. That debt consumed more than 50 percent of

Copy-Paste Governance: How ESG Regulation Is Triggering the Market - By Design or By Mistake?

Copy-Paste Governance: How ESG Regulation Is Triggering the Market - By Design or By Mistake?

A rule meant to improve ESG data quality is now drawing fire for introducing bias and operational paralysis. Under the European Union’s new ESG Ratings Regulation (EU) 2024/3005, rating providers must notify companies ‘during its working hours and at least two full working days before the first issuance