Dr Daniel Cash

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Credit Ratings

Seeing the Data, Not Just the Model: The Next Step for Credit Rating Openness

Seeing the Data, Not Just the Model: The Next Step for Credit Rating Openness

At the recent Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said something that needs to be taken seriously. He called for greater openness from credit rating agencies. His test was straightforward: sovereigns should be able to take the methodology,

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Recent sovereign Eurobond issuances from African states have demonstrated remarkable investor appetite. Order books routinely exceed initial targets by factors of three, four, sometimes five. The transactions close successfully. Capital flows arrive on schedule. Official announcements celebrate the depth of international confidence. The coupons, however, tell a different story. Yields

When the Agencies Disagree

When the Agencies Disagree

On Thursday, October 9th, Reuters reported that S&P Global was widely expected to leave Italy’s rating unchanged at BBB+ with a stable outlook, even as the country’s deficit fell to 3 per cent of GDP for the first time since before COVID. Fitch, by contrast, had

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

The G20’s Capital Adequacy Framework review asked multilateral development banks to publish clearer statistics on risk. The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) has responded, releasing disaggregated default and recovery data in late 2024 and making it available on Bloomberg terminals. An AI layer, reportedly being developed with

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

Global sovereign debt burdens have reached unprecedented levels, with external debt of low- and middle-income countries rising to a record $8.8 trillion in 2023. This escalation has compressed fiscal space across developing countries, restricted investment in healthcare and education, undermined progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, and created

The Vanishing AAA: How Ratings Have Redefined ‘Safe’ Debt

The Vanishing AAA: How Ratings Have Redefined ‘Safe’ Debt

In 1984, when the FTSE World Government Bond Index launched, it captured something close to perfection. Nearly every government bond in the index carried a triple-A rating. The world’s safest assets, neatly packaged and weighted, offering investors a map of pristine sovereign credit. Today, that map tells a

The Currency of Credit: Sovereign Ratings and the Politics of Dollar Dependence

The Currency of Credit: Sovereign Ratings and the Politics of Dollar Dependence

The contemporary debate on sovereign borrowing is often framed in terms of ‘de-dollarisation’, as reported this week in the Financial Times (‘Developing Countries Swap Out of Dollar Debt to Cut Borrowing Costs’). The more immediate reality is pragmatic. Kenya has experimented with Renminbi issuance, Panama with Swiss francs, Hungary