Dr Daniel Cash

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Development Finance

The Reform Mirage: Why London’s ‘Debt Pause’ Plan Protects Creditors, Not Countries

The Reform Mirage: Why London’s ‘Debt Pause’ Plan Protects Creditors, Not Countries

Another market innovation has arrived out of London. The Bondholder Working Group of the London Coalition for Sustainable Sovereign Debt has published a consultative paper proposing ‘Broad Debt Pause Clauses’ for emerging market bonds. The language is careful, the formatting professional. The proposal promises standardised clauses, investor protections, and enhanced

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Recent sovereign Eurobond issuances from African states have demonstrated remarkable investor appetite. Order books routinely exceed initial targets by factors of three, four, sometimes five. The transactions close successfully. Capital flows arrive on schedule. Official announcements celebrate the depth of international confidence. The coupons, however, tell a different story. Yields

GDP as a Metric: The Shared Language Problem

GDP as a Metric: The Shared Language Problem

In sovereign finance, numbers travel. They cross borders, cultures, and currencies with a clarity that policy aspirations rarely match. When Moody’s downgrades a government or S&P assigns a new rating, the conversation that follows - between analysts and investors, ministers and markets - begins with the same vocabulary: GDP

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

The G20’s Capital Adequacy Framework review asked multilateral development banks to publish clearer statistics on risk. The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) has responded, releasing disaggregated default and recovery data in late 2024 and making it available on Bloomberg terminals. An AI layer, reportedly being developed with

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

The UK's Role in a New Era of Sovereign Debt Crisis

Global sovereign debt burdens have reached unprecedented levels, with external debt of low- and middle-income countries rising to a record $8.8 trillion in 2023. This escalation has compressed fiscal space across developing countries, restricted investment in healthcare and education, undermined progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, and created