Dr Daniel Cash

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The Ratings Oligopoly and the MDB Reform Ceiling

The Ratings Oligopoly and the MDB Reform Ceiling

On October 13, 2025, S&P Global Ratings published revised criteria for how it evaluates multilateral lending institutions. The changes were technical: adjustments to how the agency calculates risk-weighted assets, a broader recognition of what counts as usable capital, and new treatment of hybrid instruments and contingent capital

Seeing the Data, Not Just the Model: The Next Step for Credit Rating Openness

Seeing the Data, Not Just the Model: The Next Step for Credit Rating Openness

At the recent Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said something that needs to be taken seriously. He called for greater openness from credit rating agencies. His test was straightforward: sovereigns should be able to take the methodology,

The Reform Mirage: Why London’s ‘Debt Pause’ Plan Protects Creditors, Not Countries

The Reform Mirage: Why London’s ‘Debt Pause’ Plan Protects Creditors, Not Countries

Another market innovation has arrived out of London. The Bondholder Working Group of the London Coalition for Sustainable Sovereign Debt has published a consultative paper proposing ‘Broad Debt Pause Clauses’ for emerging market bonds. The language is careful, the formatting professional. The proposal promises standardised clauses, investor protections, and enhanced

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Delegated Sovereignty: How the Governance of Eurobond Pricing Defines the Cost of Being a State

Recent sovereign Eurobond issuances from African states have demonstrated remarkable investor appetite. Order books routinely exceed initial targets by factors of three, four, sometimes five. The transactions close successfully. Capital flows arrive on schedule. Official announcements celebrate the depth of international confidence. The coupons, however, tell a different story. Yields

When the Agencies Disagree

When the Agencies Disagree

On Thursday, October 9th, Reuters reported that S&P Global was widely expected to leave Italy’s rating unchanged at BBB+ with a stable outlook, even as the country’s deficit fell to 3 per cent of GDP for the first time since before COVID. Fitch, by contrast, had

GDP as a Metric: The Shared Language Problem

GDP as a Metric: The Shared Language Problem

In sovereign finance, numbers travel. They cross borders, cultures, and currencies with a clarity that policy aspirations rarely match. When Moody’s downgrades a government or S&P assigns a new rating, the conversation that follows - between analysts and investors, ministers and markets - begins with the same vocabulary: GDP

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

Better Data, Better Prices? Testing the GEMs Claim

The G20’s Capital Adequacy Framework review asked multilateral development banks to publish clearer statistics on risk. The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) has responded, releasing disaggregated default and recovery data in late 2024 and making it available on Bloomberg terminals. An AI layer, reportedly being developed with